Representations on the role of external actors in the Libyan conflict in the modern expert and analytical community of Turkey (the case of SETA materials)

The intensification of Turkey’s policy towards the Libyan conflict after the escalation in 2019, marked by the signing of two memorandums with the Government of National Accord in Tripoli: “On mutual understanding in the field of security and military cooperation” and “On the issue of demarcation of maritime borders in the Eastern Mediterranean” formed a new balance of power and strengthened Ankara’s position not only in Libya, but throughout the Mediterranean region. Against this background, the attention of the Turkish expert and analytical community to studying the interests, tools and limits of the foreign policy capabilities of other international actors involved in the Libyan conflict has increased significantly.

The article provides an overview and an attempt at a basic historiographical analysis of the existing ideas in the modern expert and analytical community of Turkey about the role of external actors in the Libyan conflict in the light of the key interests and goals of Turkish foreign policy.

The study is based on the results of the analysis of academic and expert-analytical materials mainly in Turkish and English. When writing the article, analytical materials from the Turkish “thought factory” SETA were used on the policies of foreign states in Libya.

The authors come to the conclusion that, in general, the policies pursued by foreign states in Libya are characterized by Turkish experts as ineffective and destructive, due to the contradictions existing in their positions and their focus on maximizing intermediate benefits, rather than the final resolution of the conflict. The only exception is Italy, whose position is regarded by Turkish experts as closest to the Turkish approach to the Libyan conflict. At the same time, Turkish researchers emphasize the irritation of external actors with the intensification of Turkish policy in Libya, especially after 2019, which may become an obstacle not so much to the implementation of the goals of Turkish policy as to the resolution of the conflict.

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